Get ready for a completely transformed Turkey

Even the Justice and Development Party (AKP) hadn’t expected to get 46.6% of the votes. Everybody was shocked. The real meaning of this result wasn’t realized until later.

In the speech he made the night of the elections, the PM even stressed that “he would embrace everyone, including those who had concerns and would opt for reconciliatory policies.” Most probably, even he had been caught by surprise. In fact, he later took such steps that reconciliation and “the embracing of the concerned” remained as empty words.

There rose such a storm after the elections, mostly triggered by the National Movement Party (MHP) that everything changed. First, the changed attitude of the MHP planted Gül at Çankaya, and the rest followed. The president and the internal structure of the Higher Education Board (YÖK) were changed. The balances within the constitutional court were modified. The judiciary began to be fine-tuned.

Before the 22 July elections, the AKP had been in government, but had not governed the country and hadn’t even try to. It had remained practical and had not forced the turban or the religious issue. After that date, however, the AKP realised for the first time that it could govern the country after all. It wasn’t concerned about the military or the secular media or the opposition any more, so it ignored them. Armed with the slogan “Sovereignty belongs unconditionally to the people,” and claiming that the “nation had spoken, ” it went to work. The 46.6% that had given such courage to this party also put fear into its opposers. Propelled by this percentage and triggered by the MHP, the AKP stirred up or was obligated to stir up the hornet’s nest and knowingly began modifying the institutions that direct Turkey by exclusively appointing bureaucrats of identical views to managerial posts.

Secularists used to make up the majority of the bureaucratic corps in Turkey. Now, the scales have tipped in favour of people, who bring a different interpretation to secularism. The constitutional court and YÖK are undergoing change and university rectors are being replaced. The safety valves are not in place any more. This change is not limited to the bureaucracy, alone. A new mentality is being brought to education. Money is changing hands. AKP members become increasingly rich. They are now all over the place and are winning practically all the tenders. The financial bureaucracy is also being replaced, starting with the central Bank. The AKP media is also growing, while the secular media grows smaller. Religious media is on the spread. Finally, the AKP acquires more influence over our daily life through municipal governments. Their particular dress code, way of speaking and smell is invading Turkey’s management. We must get ready to live in a completely transformed Turkey in 5-10 years.

Turkey in the eyes of Merkel

What the German Prime Minister Merkel said to the press after her last week’s meeting with Erdoğan included some very important messages about Turkey’s relations with the EU. Merkel announced that her government preferred to grant Turkey privileged partnership rather than full EU membership, but that she would comply with the former EU decisions. In other words, she said that her government would respect the signature of the German Republic.

This is not the first time that Merkel has said this. For some time, however, she has also frequently replaced pacta sunt servanda with privileged partnership in her speeches. In other words, Berlin finds it difficult to accept Turkey’s full membership. Better said, the Christian Democrat section of the coalition is opposed to this idea. The Social Democrat wing, on the other hand, insists on full membership for Turkey. Christian Democrats prefer to say “privileged partnership” when addressing their base. However, in their conversations with Turkey or their coalition partners, they say that they’ll accept Turkey as full member if it fulfils all requirements. This policy is putting some distance between Merkel and President Sarkozy, who says a categorical NO. He even questions Turkey’s European quality. However, he doesn’t want negotiations to stop completely either. He just likes to hatch small handicaps here and there. In short, the Merkel-Sarkozy barrier on Turkey’s way to the EU isn’t as formidable as it’s supposed to be.

If Turkey manages to remember its relations with the EU and revives the reforms, its progress will be faster than we imagine. Nobody will be able to stand in Turkey’s way if it starts fulfilling the EU requirements. The biggest mistake would be to say, “Merkel and Sarkozy won’t let us through no matter what we do,” and to lie in wait for a change in that front without doing anything. It would be an unfortunate loss of time. I know what I’m talking about and insist on repeating it. No one will be able to block Turkey’s full membership for long, not if it fulfils the requirements. They might drag their feet from time to time, but they’ll have to give up in time. Therefore, let’s stop speculating and do our part.