Turkey – EU : the meeting point (2)

With this article, Baskin Oran is developping some thoughts regarding a potential geostrategic interaction between a “challenger” and a “strategic medium state”, in fact Brussels and Ankara confronted with the role and the powership of the USA, the only hegemonic power especially after hthe invasion of Iraq in 2003. What is the role that the EU can shape for itself on the global stage ? And how ?
First, theory. And practice to continue.

 Article N°1

To sum up things for the EU, the Union needs:

1) To have a say in international arena; a prerequisite to overcoming its present status of a second-class power vis-à-vis the Hegemonic Power;

2) More importantly, to stop centrifugal forces from weakening the Union, a process that could keep functioning as long as the Union stays in this status.

A European military wing

Both objectives can only be reached by closing the circuit : a military wing should compulsorily come to complement the economic and cultural assets.
Developing a military aspect was unnecessary when, in the obscurity of the Cold War, the US nuclear umbrella defended Europe against the USSR. But now, as the eye-dazzling radiance of the Hegemonic Power could obscure the future of the Union, it seems imperative.

The EU should be able to both:
 develop a military pillar ;
 and be able to reach the conflict areas.

Both objectives are difficult, because the taxpayers are quite unwilling to pay and they will continue to be so until they are convinced they have to for their well being; and Europe ends before most of the conflict areas begin.

To sum up things for Turkey, Turkey needs a counterweight, in its own region, to the overall dominance of one big state, the Hegemonic Power.
Turkey, and the Ottoman Empire its predecessor, have done just that to survive in what’s called in Turkish the “Wolves’ Table”. Examples would be too banal to cite.

The needs could meet

Turkey as an element of the European Security and Defense Policy could enable the EU to reach (the Middle East, the Caucasus) and encircle (the Balkans) the conflict areas. In exchange, Turkey would enjoy a sort of balance, a breathing atmosphere.

 Feasibility
For this, Turkey needs not to be a full member of the EU. The cooperation could be limited to the military wing and for this it would suffice that some rules of the EU security policy are adjusted.

For this, Turkey needs to overcome its human and minority rights problems without which the EU public opinion would disagree. Turkey has gone a long way since 06 February 2002 when the first of seven Harmonization Packages was adopted. There’s no doubt that Turkey owes it a lot to close relations with the EU : in the periphery, modernization is usually achieved through external dynamics; in Turkey this has been the case since at least the Tanzimat in 1839, the first democratization endeavor of the Ottomans. There’s no doubt that this cooperation would facilitate a great deal the job of Turkish intellectuals working for greater democracy.

 Difficulties

Aside from those already present, the main difficulty would reside in the following way of thinking : bordering the conflict areas would be bordering the trouble itself.

Of course, one must make it sure that Europe would be away from trouble when it’s away from the conflict areas. Again, as a Turkish proverb goes: “The fear does not annul the appointed time of death (ecel)”

On the other hand, the same train of thought brings to the conclusion that the decision to stay a non-challenger would also create considerably fewer problems with the Hegemonic Power. “Thinking big” always increases the risk factor.

Furthermore, it would be enlightening to think that Turkey would cause fewer security problems to Europe as a member of the EU’s military pillar than as the pivotal state of the Hegemonic Power.

Recent Words and Things

On March 1^st, 2003, the Turkish parliament refused to admit US troops into Turkish territory with a view to invading Iraq from the north.

Afterwards some EU officials made statements to lead one think that such cooperation could be possible. To translate from the Turkish press :

G. Verheugen, 09.05.2003: “In the light of the developments in the crisis region, I consider it useful the inclusion of a secular and Muslim country in the EU”.

E. Landaburu, 17.05.2003: “A multicultural structure that assimilated religious differences, and strengthened by a strong democracy would transform into a global power a EU whose borders would extend as far as Iran”.

S. Berlusconi, 19.05.2003: “To be taken into consideration one needs to develop a military power also. Europe can reach this by extending its borders towards especially to Turkey and Russia”.

“De Villepin : we need one bi country in the EU”

Finally, to cite one inside information that did not make the news, French Foreign Minister de Villepin is reported to have said during his visit to Turkey in May 2003: “The lesson that Iraq thought to us is : we need not many small countries in Europe, but one big country.”

These statements made in May 2003 may be just a spring wind or more realistically they may be reflecting nice words intended to keep Turkish officials happy; in this latter case they could not be considered very original, given the history of relations. But if they are not so, there is much to think about a potential geopolitical interaction between the two sides.

The attack on South Korea in 1950 had frightened America, as a result of which the US admitted Turkey in NATO. The result has been, as it’s called in international relations jargon, a “win-win” situation.
The above-cited statements put aside, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, as yet, seems to have made no such frightening effect on the EU.
But if it were not so, I’m of the opinion that the result would again be a win-win.
After all, the sensation of fear is, according to the science of psychology, the most vital of the defense mechanisms.